2025 Snowpack Report: River Flow Predictions & Water Storage Outlook

With the majority of winter now behind us, I thought this would be a great time to check on the state of the snowpack. As most of you know, the snowpack is always the first factor in predicting summer flows in rivers across the West. It’s one of the most concrete indicators, especially since temperatures and precipitation are nearly impossible to predict far in advance. While Punxsutawney Phil may have been right that we had six more weeks of winter, after all, a groundhog in Pennsylvania might not be the best resource for measuring snowpack.

At the beginning of this winter, it was widely believed we would experience a weak La Niña weather pattern. This meant the southern half of the country was expected to be warmer and drier, while the Pacific Northwest would be cooler, with a higher chance of precipitation. This left Colorado positioned between the two.

For the most part, this has been the case in a broad sense, but, as always with weather, there are exceptions. We saw brutally cold temperatures across much of the country in January, even snow falling in New Orleans. If we know anything about weather, it’s that it’s largely unpredictable. Here’s how the western snowpack looked just a few weeks ago:

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As you can see, the deepest snowpacks are in Northern California, Southern Oregon, and Central Oregon. Most of these areas are well above average, with some areas even close to double the typical snowpack. Interestingly, there’s almost a cut-off line in Central and Northern Washington, where snowpack levels are below average. Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming have fared well with consistent snow this winter.

Colorado has been right around average for most of the year, while Utah has been largely below average. Surprisingly, and outside of long-range forecasts, most of our snow here came in December. We’ve had enough storms roll through this winter to maintain a comfortable snowpack locally. The Southwest, on the other hand, has faced a much rougher winter.

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The Impact of Sun, Wind, and Warm Temperatures

One of the biggest variables in snowpack levels is the combination of sun, wind, and warm temperatures. As we move toward spring, we start to experience longer days, a higher angle of the sun, and more wind. These three factors can quickly affect the snowpack, especially in lower elevations. You can see this in the graph below, which shows the gradual impact of these factors on the snowpack. It’s been particularly dry and mild in the Southwest U.S. this winter, which has only added to the snowpack challenges.

Looking specifically at Colorado, we can see that the central and northern parts of the state are right around average for the year. However, the southern basins have dropped quite a bit over the past few weeks. For instance, Wolf Creek Ski Area has only received 149 inches of snow this year—far below the area’s usual heavy snowfall. Wolf Creek is known for its deep snowstorms, but 2025 hasn’t brought those kinds of storms yet. Like most of the state, the majority of the snow here fell in December, but since then, the snowpack has been relatively quiet.

Current River Basin Standings

As of March 11th, statewide snowpack is at 90% of average. Here’s a breakdown of snowpack by basin:
(% of average snowpack for this date)

• South Platte: 104%
• North Platte: 102%
• Colorado River Basin: 100%
• Yampa: 102%
• Arkansas River Basin: 75%
• Gunnison Basin: 88%
• Upper Rio Grande: 71%
• San Juan: 69%

We are about 30–40 days away from the median peak of the snowpack. After that, it will rapidly decrease as the spring and summer seasons set in. Fortunately, with our biggest snow months ahead, we still have a decent chance of boosting these numbers.

Colorado is known for its big spring storms, and it would only take a couple of those to make a significant difference. Looking at the extended forecast, the high country here in Colorado is expected to see some snow chances in mid- to late March. Even small snowstorms at this time of year can make a big impact. We recently saw a storm roll through California, Utah, Nevada, and parts of Colorado. The comparison below shows how the snowpack can change after just one good storm:

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Water Storage

Tailwaters have several advantages when it comes to water storage and fishing. Tailwaters provide a constant flow of water, which creates an ideal environment for fish. Water managers can take advantage of reservoirs along a tailwater to stockpile water for future use, especially during periods of high demand. This is a delicate balancing act but ensures that water is available when needed most. Our local South Platte Basin, in particular, has a lot of water storage, and the main reservoirs are in good shape for this time of year. Below are the current water levels in these key reservoirs:

• Dillon Reservoir: 88%
• Antero Reservoir: 94%
• Eleven Mile Reservoir: 103%
• Spinney Reservoir: 46%
• Strontia Springs Reservoir: 88%

Keep in mind, we still have spring runoff to contend with. With slightly above-average snowpack in the South Platte Basin, these reservoir levels should rise significantly. When a reservoir reaches full capacity, water managers will release water, which leads to higher flows in the rivers.

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Water Demand

Unfortunately, in the case of the South Platte River, the river flows are largely dependent on downstream water demand. If Denver needs more water, the flows will increase. In fact, we often see higher flows on the South Platte during dry periods, due to increased demand. A few years ago, we saw the opposite happen when excess water caused challenges with distribution. Consistent rain on the Front Range decreased water demand, and water managers struggled to move the water where it was needed. With the nice weather this week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight increase in flows, especially out of Cheesman Reservoir.

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Conclusion

As anglers and outdoor enthusiasts, we all have a vested interest in the snowpack. This data can be useful for many reasons—from planning outdoor adventures to identifying areas that may be more susceptible to wildfires this summer.

One of the most important factors we’ll be watching is how long spring runoff lasts. A rapid warm-up could be problematic, forcing most of the water to rush through the system all at once, which greatly reduces its efficiency. The best-case scenario is a slow, gradual warm-up, which would allow runoff to start slow, peak, and then taper down over a 6–8 week period.

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There Is Hope

As I finish writing this blog, a potent storm is entering the high country. This storm is set to dump a significant amount of snow in some key areas that really need it. Southwestern Colorado looks to be in the storm’s path, and 10–20 inches of snow could fall. This storm will mostly affect higher elevations and could single-handedly boost our snowpack considerably. As I mentioned earlier, it doesn’t take much to boost snowpack levels in the spring. It’s an exciting time to be a weather and snowpack enthusiast. I can’t wait to see what spring has in store for us!

Make sure to keep an eye on our Fishing Reports! The flows in theses reports are live, and our reports and fly suggestions are updated multiple times a week!